India Prime | Devender Singh | India | 11 May 2025 | India-Pakistan Tension: Global Demand for Small Arms Surges After Terror Attacks

On 22 April 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam claimed 26 lives, prompting India to launch Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025. In this operation, the Indian Army destroyed 9 terrorist bases in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), including Jaish-e-Mohammed’s Markaz Subhan Allah center and Lashkar-e-Taiba hideouts. This action escalated India-Pakistan tensions to a peak and significantly impacted the global arms market. This article analyzes the rising demand for weapons following Operation Sindoor, India’s global credibility, and the benefits gained by major arms exporters.

Operation Sindoor and India-Pakistan Tension

Operation Sindoor showcased India’s military might and diplomatic strategy. India effectively neutralized Pakistan’s drone and missile attacks using advanced weaponry like the S-400, Akash, QRSAM, and Rafale jets. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri briefed 13 countries about the operation, securing support from nations like the US, Russia, and Israel.

• India’s Global Credibility: The operation established India as a responsible and powerful nation. The US State Department condemned the Pahalgam attack as “unlawful” and expressed solidarity with India.
• Pakistan’s Position: Pakistan’s credibility suffered a major blow. The deaths of 200-300 terrorists from Jaish and Lashkar, along with the destruction of four airbases (Nur Khan, Murid, Rafiqui), weakened the ISI and Pakistani military.
• Nuclear Concerns: The nuclear status of both nations heightened global concerns, but India’s precise and non-provocative strikes secured a strategic victory.

Global Arms Market Heats Up: Surge in Demand for Drones and Counter-Drone Systems

Operation Sindoor has fueled demand for the following weapons in the global arms market:

1. Drones and Counter-Drone Systems

• Global Demand: Drones have become critical in modern warfare, as seen in the Russia-Ukraine war and India-Pakistan tensions. The global drone market is expected to reach $63 billion by 2028.
• India’s Role: India utilized indigenous drones (DRDO Rustom, Netra) and counter-drone systems. According to X posts, India’s drone exports are on the rise.
• Key Players: Turkey (Bayraktar TB2), USA (MQ-9 Reaper), Israel (Heron TP).

2. Missile and Air Defense Systems

• Global Demand: India-Pakistan tensions have boosted demand for systems like the S-400, Akash, and Patriot. The global missile market could reach $73 billion by 2030.
• India’s Role: India has started exporting Akash and BrahMos missiles (to the Philippines and Armenia).
• Key Players: Russia (S-400), USA (Patriot), India (Akash, BrahMos).

3. Cyber Weapons

• Global Demand: The demand for cyber warfare and electronic warfare is growing. The cybersecurity market may reach $300 billion by 2030.
• India’s Role: India exported cyber software to France, and DRDO is developing AI-based systems.
• Key Players: USA, Israel, China.

4. Fighter Jets

• Global Demand: Demand for jets like Rafale and F-35 has surged. The global fighter jet market could reach $100 billion by 2030.
• India’s Role: Utilization of Rafale and exports of Tejas (to Malaysia, Egypt). AMCA development may boost exports by 2030.
• Key Players: USA (F-35), France (Rafale), Russia (Su-30).

5. Naval Warships

• Global Demand: The race to enhance naval capabilities may drive the global naval market to $50 billion by 2030.
• India’s Role: India exported patrol vessels to Mauritius and Sri Lanka.
• Key Players: USA, France, Germany.

6. Artillery and Rocket Systems

• Global Demand: Systems like Pinaka and HIMARS are in high demand. The artillery market may reach $20 billion by 2030.
• India’s Role: Pinaka exports to Armenia ($250 million) and growing demand for ATAGS.
• Key Players: USA (HIMARS), India (Pinaka), France (Caesar).

7. AI-Based Weapons

• Global Demand: Demand for AI and autonomous weapons is rising. The AI defense market may reach $15 billion by 2030.
• India’s Role: DRDO’s Ghatak UCAV and AI software development.
• Key Players: USA, Israel, China.

India’s Arms Export Position

• 2020–2024: India’s defense exports reached $2.63 billion in 2024, marking a 32.5% increase.
• Key Exports: BrahMos (Philippines), Akash (Armenia), Pinaka (Armenia).
• Challenges: Focus on low-value products and lack of long-term buyers.

Impact on Global Arms Trade

The global arms trade reached $111.615 billion in 2024, the highest since the Cold War. India-Pakistan tensions further fueled this trade.

Key Exporters and Beneficiaries

1. USA (43% Share):
   • Benefits: Increased demand for F-35, Patriot, and drones. Revenue from clients like India and Saudi Arabia.
   • Strategy: Partnerships in NATO and the Middle East.
2. France (9.6% Share):
   • Benefits: Rising demand for Rafale in India and the Middle East. India accounts for 28% of its exports.
   • Strategy: Focus on emerging markets like Ukraine and India.
3. Russia (7.8% Share):
   • Benefits: Demand for S-400 in India and other nations. India remains a key client despite the Ukraine war.
   • Challenges: Sanctions have limited exports.
4. China (5% Share):
   • Benefits: Supply of JF-17 and drones to Pakistan. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.
   • Challenges: Pakistan’s economic instability.
5. Turkey (1.6% Share):
   • Benefits: Demand for Bayraktar TB2 and Kemankeş missiles. Pakistan is a key client.
   • Strategy: Focus on affordable and effective drones.

Popular Weapons and Their Demand

Operation Sindoor highlighted the global demand for certain weapons:

1. Assault Rifles

• AK-47 (Russia): Over 100 million units sold, affordable and durable.
• M16 (USA): Over 8 million units, NATO’s primary rifle.

2. Tanks

• T-72 (Russia): Over 20,000 units, used in 40+ countries.
• M1 Abrams (USA): Over 8,800 units, used in the Middle East and Europe.

3. Fighter Jets

• MiG-21 (Russia): Used in 60+ countries, widespread in India.
• F-16 (USA): Used in 25+ countries, a key jet for Pakistan.
• Rafale (France): In demand in India and the Middle East.

4. Missile Systems

• S-400 (Russia): Effective use in India.
• Patriot (USA): Popular in the Middle East.
• Akash (India): Rising demand for indigenous missiles.

Conclusion

Operation Sindoor established India’s military and diplomatic strength on the global stage, while dealing a severe blow to Pakistan’s credibility and military capabilities. The tensions have driven demand for drones, missiles, cyber weapons, and fighter jets, with the USA, France, and Russia emerging as key beneficiaries. India’s indigenous weapons (BrahMos, Akash, Pinaka) are gaining traction in the global market, but a focus on long-term buyers and high-value exports is essential. The global arms trade is set to grow further by 2030, with India emerging as a potential key player.