Mexico’s aviation industry is entering the opening days of the 2026 FIFA World Cup with weaker-than-expected travel demand, as new booking data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that two of the country’s three host cities are recording declines in reservations despite extensive infrastructure investments and expectations of a tourism surge.
According to IATA, Mexico City and Guadalajara are the only two of the tournament’s 16 host cities posting year-over-year declines in air travel bookings for June and July compared with the same period in 2025. Mexico City recorded a 2.2% decrease in reservations, while Guadalajara saw bookings fall 3.4%.
The figures contrast with earlier forecasts that the World Cup would provide a significant boost to airlines, airports, hotels, and tourism-related businesses across Mexico.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said major sporting events such as the FIFA World Cup and the Olympic Games often generate different outcomes than widely anticipated.
“These events tend to be negative for airlines because they disrupt business travel,” Walsh said. “They tend to be somewhat disruptive and generally negative. People often believe they will create a major boom, but that is not usually the case.”
Walsh added that higher travel costs may also be dampening demand. “Hotel prices, combined with the cost of match tickets, may have discouraged people from traveling as much as expected,” he said. “Traffic volumes will be lower. The overall impact is negative. It is not huge, but it is negative.”
The executive acknowledged that the performance of Mexico’s two largest host markets came as a surprise. “I have to be honest, I was surprised when I saw Mexico City and Guadalajara, and nobody has been able to explain it,” Walsh said. “There may be concerns about corruption, particularly in Mexico City. Some people may also be worried about delays and operational disruptions.”
IATA noted that booking trends may also be influenced by the number and stage of matches hosted in each city, late booking patterns, and a greater reliance on regional or short-haul travelers.
Mexico City will host five matches through the Round of 16, while Guadalajara is scheduled to host four group-stage matches. Monterrey, however, has emerged as one of the tournament’s strongest-performing host cities. The city recorded a 7.3% increase in bookings compared with the previous year, second only to Kansas City’s 8.5% growth among all host venues.
In its analysis, IATA said the strongest increases are concentrated in globally connected hubs where international demand develops earlier.
Industry observers attribute Monterrey’s performance in part to its proximity to the United States and its expanding connectivity to North American and international destinations. The city offers convenient links to other World Cup host markets, including Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.
Airport operator Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte (OMA) has also expanded Monterrey’s connectivity ahead of the tournament. New summer routes include flights to Paris, Bogota, New York-JFK, and Madrid operated by Aeroméxico, Avianca, Viva, and Iberia.
Meanwhile, Mexico City International Airport (AICM) continues to face operational challenges despite completing a MX$6.5 billion modernization program ahead of the tournament. Federal authorities recently increased the airport’s operating capacity from 44 to 46 hourly aircraft movements to accommodate additional demand.
The airport also continues to face pressure from air traffic controller staffing shortages and labor disputes. Controllers recently threatened strike action over workforce and compensation issues. Operational incidents reported in recent months have included water leaks, flooding caused by damaged pipes, the partial collapse of a roof structure on an access bridge, and the formation of a sinkhole on a Terminal 2 access ramp.
Mexico’s Ministry of Tourism estimates that the World Cup could generate 5.5 million additional visitors this year. However, Moody’s Local México recently lowered its forecast to 768,000 visitors, including 521,000 domestic travelers and 247,000 international arrivals.
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